Papers
Existence and Uniqueness Results for a Mean-Field Game of Optimal Investment
by Alessandro Calvia, Salvatore Federico, Giorgio Ferrari, Fausto Gozzi. Published in Applied Mathematics and Optimization. Abstract: We establish the existence and uniqueness of the equilibrium for a stochastic mean-field game of optimal investment. The analysis covers both finite and infinite time horizons, and the mean-field interaction of the representative company with a mass of identical and indistinguishable firms …
Market Making With Fads, Informed, and Uninformed Traders
by Emilio Barucci, Adrien Mathieu, Leandro Sánchez-Betancourt. Published in Mathematical Finance. Abstract: We characterize the solution to a continuous-time optimal liquidity provision problem in a market populated by informed and uninformed traders. In our model, the asset price exhibits fads —these are short-term deviations from the fundamental value of the asset. Conditional on the value of the fad, …
Returns under the lens: the importance of ESG factors
by Gabriele Ginestroni, Daniele Marazzina, Nico Rosamilia. Published in Decisions in Economics and Finance. Abstract: Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) factors have become increasingly relevant in financial markets, influencing investment strategies and risk assessments. This article explores the role of raw ESG metrics in predicting the direction of future stock returns, framing return forecasting as a classification …
Carbon-Penalised Portfolio Insurance Strategies in a Stochastic Factor Model with Partial Information
by Katia Colaneri, Federico D’Amario, Daniele Mancinelli. Published in Scandinavian Acturial Journal. Abstract: We investigate optimal proportional portfolio insurance (PPI) strategies aimed at reducing exposure to carbon intensive stocks. PPI strategies enable investors to mitigate downside risk while retaining the potential for upside gains. In this paper we determine the PPI strategies to maximise the …
Short-rate models with stochastic discontinuities: A PDE approach
by Alessandro Calvia, Marzia De Donno, Chiara Guardasoni, Simona Sanfelici. Published in Mathematics and computers in simulation. Abstract: With the reform of interest rate benchmarks, interbank offered rates (IBORs) like LIBOR have been replaced by risk-free rates (RFRs), such as the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) in the U.S. and the Euro Short-Term Rate (€STR) …
The additive Bachelier model with an application to the oil option market in the Covid period
by Roberto Baviera and Michele Domenico Massaria. Published in the Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics. Abstract: In April 2020, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange temporarily switched the pricing formula for West Texas Intermediate oil market options from the Black model to the Bachelier model. In this context, we introduce an additive Bachelier model that provides a …
Temperature Anomalies and Climate Physical Risk in Portfolio Construction
by Michele Azzone, Carlo Bechi, Gabriele Sbaiz. Preprint. Abstract: Driven by the increasing frequency and intensity of natural disasters and chronic climate threats, we investigate the impact of physical climate risk on global equity portfolios. By employing a panel regression analysis on sectoral returns, we provide statistical evidence that extreme temperature events exert a negative effect …
Pricing and Hedging Financial Derivatives in Merger & Acquisition Deals with Price Impact
by Emilio Barucci, Yuheng Lan, Daniele Marazzina. Preprint. Abstract: We investigate the optimal execution of contracts that are used in merger\&acquisition deals. We consider cash-settled and physically delivered contracts between a broker and a counterpart. Contracts are linear (total returns swaps), nonlinear (collar contracts) or Asian type (TWAP based contracts). We derive the optimal execution strategy …
Forecasting Bitcoin price movements using multivariate Hawkes processes and limit order book data
by Davide Raffaelli, Raffaele Giuseppe Cestari, Daniele Marazzina, Simone Formentin. Published in Decisions in Economics and Finance. Abstract: Forecasting short-term returns of Bitcoin is a key challenge in high-frequency trading, due to the cryptocurrency’s extreme volatility, market microstructure complexity, and non-stationary behavior. Limit Order Book (LOB) data offer a rich source of high-resolution information that can improve predictive …
Navigating Supply Shocks: Sector Resilience and Production Prices Through Stochastic Input–Output Modeling
by Giovanni Amici, Gianluca Fusai, Anna Maria Gambaro, Daniele Marazzina. Published in Mathematical Finance. Abstract: This study develops a novel multivariate stochastic framework for assessing systemic risks, such as climate and nature-related shocks, within production or financial networks. By embedding a linear stochastic fluid network, interpretable as a generalized vector Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process, into the production network of interdependent …